Upcoming German Election – a new Bundestag

Few people are in doubt as to the broad outcome of the upcoming German election on 24th September. Although Leader of the Social Democrats and former President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz still believes the fight is not lost, polls show the incumbents’ lead widening in recent months.

Germany’s Bundestag, comprising 299 seats, will see Germans vote for a constituency MP and for a party list on the 24th. Current polls are predicting 40% for the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), 24% for centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) with the other four other main parties – Left, Green, Free Democratic and Alternative for Germany – taking just shy of 10% each.

It’s looking ever more likely Merkel will be heading into her fourth term as Chancellor later this month. So those in Westminster hoping for a softer negotiation counterparty in Germany should perhaps look away now.

Merkel is Europe’s longest-serving elected female head of government by a large margin, having managed to pursuade many younger voters with her ‘grandma’ appeal. Once seen by David Cameron as a close ally, the change in UK leadership and the Brexit vote has taken its toll.

Unless something shocking happens in the next two weeks it looks like Prime Minister May will need to put a little more effort into her seemingly cold relationship with Merkel.

The Prime Minister’s reputation management challenge has parallels with similar challenges faced every day by business leaders. Moreover, the evolving European political environment also poses uncertainty to many businesses. Without specialist advice, a strategic error can be costly – even fatal. If your organisation needs help understanding and engaging with the political mechanisms, or with a reputation management challenge, please call 020 7368 3100 or email info@portcullispublicaffairs.com.